Well I mgiht as well return to one of my favourite topics: politics. And given that the first primary of the election year finally took place today I might as well blog about that.
So it seems that Huckabee and Obama got up today for the Republicans and Democrats, respectively, and by decisive margins. I think I'll reserve for another day my observations of the Democrat candidates, seeing as how I've blogged about them here and there before, except to say that the Hopemonger proved the cynics (including myself) wrong and romped home to victory. I did think that Edwards would perform slightly better than he did, but that's a blog post for another day.
On the Republican side, I'm not terribly surprised by the Huckabee victory. Given that it's Iowa we're talking about, a rural state with conservative sensibilities, was Mormon Romney (no matter how qualified) seriously going to romp home with the nomination? When someone like McCain who didn't even bother campaigning hard in Iowa can get equal third shows how iffy that state is about the candidates they had to choose from. I watched Huckabee on Meet the Press recently, and in spite of the fact that I oppose 90% of his policy positions (if not more), it's hard to dislike the man. He's affable, can crack a joke, speaks well and is non-threatening. He is probably the embodiment of the compassionate conservative Dubya claimed to be but fell far short of. If anyone is going to bring out the evangelical vote, Huckabee is it. Whether his actual policies are friendly enough to the Reaganista crowd to appeal to the Republicans who have silently been disappointed by Bush 43 is another story.
One thing I find funny, and I'm not the first person to comment on this, is the relative unsophistication of American election commentary. Where we have virtuoso psephologists like Antony Green and Malcolm McKerras studying marginal electorates and analysing swings and pendulums, American elections are typically just about this day's poll, or red states vs blue states, simplifications that make for easier digestion rather than any kind of serious analysis. On the other hand, the American system is simplified greatly by first-past-the-post voting, not to mention that voting is not compulsory in the first place!
The other thing that strikes me about American Presidential campaigns is the heavy emphasis on such intangibles as "character", "likeability", and "strength". I doubt America would elect a technocrat like Kevin Rudd to the Presidency, in spite of how "presidential" the most recent campaign seemed to be. Certainly, if Bush 43 is any guide, having the qualifications and intellect to run the most powerful country in the world are not prerequisites. Policies seem to run secondary, and are presented at the broadest brushstroke level without the level of detail and scrutiny we saw in the Australian election. And the differences are usually fairly stark, and fairly constant too. Where Kevin was accused of playing me-too with John Howard, here it's a few fairly simple positions that are prominent for each side:
Democrats: pro-choice, pro-universal healthcare, pro-gay rights, anti-Iraq war.
Republicans: pro-life, anti-government intervention on healthcare, anti-gay, pro-Iraq war, pro-gun.
Notice that I didn't mention anti-gun on the Democrat side of the ledger. Doubtless pretty much all the Democrat candidates actually are pro-gun control, but no one has said anything of significance for fear of putting offside the hick vote.
Another thing that hasn't gotten much of a guernsey here: the environment. Both sides haven't been rushing headlong to ratify Kyoto. No one even speaks of it, even as concern for the environment at the grassroots level here is impressively high. Nationally though, it's being presented as an economic issue, and mainly in the context of oil and energy security. Develop alternative energy sources within the US, whether it's biofuels or wind or solar or whatever else (so the story goes), and fewer American dollars end up in Middle Eastern countries who can both hold the US to ransom through higher oil prices, and state-sponsor terrorism.
I'm getting Satellite TV hooked up on Saturday, so hopefully I can get my political junkie fix soon. In the meantime, I'll simply have to enjoy wading through reams and reams of endless mindless analysis online saying the same old junk about this primary when in reality we've got 49 more states to go and a long long year ahead...
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